After Pennsylvania

As I've been saying all along, don't count Hillary out. And, despite the conventional "wisdom," now beginning to fade somewhat, I still believe she will be the Democratic nominee. Obama now seems deflated and although his rhetoric still soars, the spirit isn't there anymore. You can hear the weariness in his voice. There is no such weariness in Senator Clinton's voice. Soundbites of Obama's supporters cheering him last night appeared laced with anxiety and tentativeness not there before.

Momentum is now on Hillary's side. Hillary won in Pennsylvania, as she did in Ohio and other large states, precisely the coalition of voters the Democrats must have to win in November. It's also telling that there is such animosity toward Obama among Clinton stalwarts, with perhaps as many as a third of them ready to vote for McCain if Hillary is not the nominee according to one exit poll.

Contrary to what many pundits convinced themselves, I believe that Obama would be the weaker candidate in November.

Obama has a nearly complete lack of experience in public office compared to McCain, and therefore very little by way of policy track record to verify what he would or would not do in office. McCain can question his wisdom, if not his patriotism, in saying he would talk to folks like the Iranian president.

There are lingering questions about Rev. Wright, which the Republicans would gleefully revisit likely by proxy and not McCain himself, and Obama's obvious elitism evidenced by the remarks about small town voters in Pennsylvania, remarks which he cannot explain away as meaning something else. And there is his straight-down-the-line Great Society ideology, meaning he has hitched his policy star to a set of policies that even most Democrats admit were failures.

Hillary brings no such weaknesses to the battle with McCain, and she has the political shark instincts that Obama seems to lack. Maybe he's just a nicer person, which is too bad because he's definitely swimming with a shark right now who smells blood in the water. Clinton can legitimately claim to be strong on national defense, while staking out a "New Democrat" stance on social issues which, although not much different from Great Society stances, at least have the flavor of being pro-free-market.

My continuing bet is that Hillary will convince just enough superdelegates she is only Democrat who can beat McCain to get the nomination. Her main problem after that will be holding onto enough Obama supporters to have a chance of winning. Obama, if he becomes the nominee, will have a fatally wounded party to contend with and a host of anti-Obama Clinton voters who may hold their noses and vote for McCain.

A further prediction: I suspect McCain will pick Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal as his running mate. It would be a stroke of pure genius.

Meantime, libertarians can only hope someone with the high name recognition of a Jesse Ventura will mount a serious campaign. The likely nominee of the Libertarian Party is totally unknown and probably will do well to get the usual 1/2 percent of the vote the LP has drawn in recent years.

There are other prominent people who are libertarians -- Kurt Russell, Drew Carey, etc -- but they have not gotten the urge to run, yet. Maybe after 4 years of a Democrat or McCain some libertarian with a well-known name will decide it's finally time.